Alongside an expected threefold increase in India’s gross domestic product over the same period, food consumption will also rise by 4% each year from Rs11tn in 2010 to Rs22.5tn by 2030, the report said. This equates to a growth in per-capita consumption from Rs9,360 to Rs15,390.
It added that India should meet its domestic demand in spite of this growth in consumption as long as certain steps are taken by the government in tandem with the private sector.
12-point plan
To increase the value of agricultural output by 130%, from Rs12.7tn in 2011 to Rs29.3tn in 2030, India must follow 12-point plan to improve yields across all crops, augmenting processing capability and strengthening the quality of farm produce. The do this, the report’s authors call for a mix of business participation and technology-orientated productivity growth over the next 20 years.
"Agriculture needs to get into a mission mode and our analysis shows that instead of focusing on grains and cereals, the first step should be for perishables. Both the Centre and states need to move fast in this sector, to create an enabling policy environment by keeping perishable commodities out of the ambit of the Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee Act," said Adil Zainulbhai, chairman of McKinsey India.
Also, rising affluence will see urban India’s food consumption patterns change from being primarily driven by basic foods to more “high-value foods” such as fruits, vegetables and complex proteins.
“As an outcome [of all this], the sector could grow by 5.2 to 5.7% (in real terms, annually) over the next 20 years,” the report said.
It identified mango, banana, potato, soybean and poultry as five items to drive the next wave of growth in Indian agriculture.
Greater efficiency
Currently, India achieves just 50-60% of its potential yield for most crops because of poor technology adoption, weak links between farmers and industry, unexplored opportunities in branding, marketing and exports, lack of infrastructure support and dearth of extension support.
As a direct correlation of the high growth it promises, the report says that farmer income will rise by over four times in real terms, while consumers will also benefit from the increase in supplies, which in turn will help match India’s estimated per capita consumption of food items in 2030.
It added that the challenge for the industry and policymakers is to overcome supply-side barriers to realise India’s true demand potential.